Pii: S0022-4359(02)00098-2

The recent expansion of global food retailers into emerging economies has made the study of food retail modernization especially relevant at this time. We present a framework to analyze limitations to market share growth of retail formats based on diffusion across consumer segments and by product category. We then propose a measurement approach, based on consumer surveys, that quantifies the impact of these processes on supermarket market share. Food retail modernization is then examined in Hong Kong by this approach for two points in time. In a 1995 diagnostic study, we find that geographic and economic segment diffusion of supermarkets is complete, but that product category-dependent diffusion (specifically perishables) is not. The latter, thereby, becomes the major restriction on supermarket share gain. In 1999, a second study measures the impact of the introduction of superstores, a large modern format, on the perishable restriction to modern format share growth. Consumers perceived superstore perishables to be superior to supermarkets’, but these views had little impact on the ability of modern format to wrest additional share from traditional markets. We discuss diagnostic and monitoring applications, and extensions of the approach to other retail contexts. © 2002 by New York University. All rights reserved.